William Shaw

  • This week, global economists expressed slight pessimism about the Chinese economy.  Knowledge@Wharton examined China’s workforce, arguing that while China’s population of 1.3 billion was once considered an “inexhaustible human capital resource,” recent census data is worrisome.  Indeed, experts are now warning of widespread labor shortages as soon as 2013. 

    Managing the Dragon focused on the China’s auto industry, concluding that it “has been stopped dead in its tracks by credit tightening.”  Recent numbers show that year-to-date, passenger car sales are up only 6.1% - a fraction of the 64% increase in 2010.

    All this and more in today’s US-China Trade update.

  • This week, economic analysts examined U.S. global competiveness.  Gordon G. Chang writes that for the U.S. just to keep pace with China, it needs to creates 150,000 jobs a month, which he concludes is a "seemingly out of reach" number.  He further argues that the U.S.' declining ability to keep pace with China “might be the result of multi-century trends we cannot hope to overcome.” 

    Uri Dadush and William Shaw are more optimistic, stating simply “yes, the United States is competitive.”  They argue that the U.S.' problem lies in spending rather than per-capita income and manufacturing productivity. 

    Managing the Dragon focuses on the competitiveness of specific American companies operating within China, particularly McDonald’s, Caterpillar, Unilever, and Coca Cola (which is “currently enjoying double-digit growth in China – its third-biggest market after the United States and Mexico – at a time when sales are close to flat across North America and Europe").

    All this and more in today's US-China trade update.

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